Notes from the Cone of Uncertainty

Boarding up the windows on Sanibel Island

They're boarding up the resort down the beach. 

Some of the women I play tennis with have already left the island. "Heading as far west as possible," said one. 

"I'm staying," declared another. "We were here for Charley. Lost power for nine days. No water for three. We had to use our neighbors' swimming pools. . .." 

"For drinking water?" 

"No. For washing." 

Photo from Hurricane Charley from The Captiva Fishing Report

Hurricane Charley was the Category 4 storm that landed on the northern part of Captiva and the lower end of North Captiva. The winds from Charley ripped apart homes and businesses and downed hundreds of trees, particularly the invasive, non-native Australian Pines like the one featured in this photo from The Captiva Fishing Report.  "I rode through Charley," said the man behind the fish counter at Jerry's. "All you need's water and propane and a cooler of meat."

Almost everyone here has a Charley story. There wasn't much advance warning for that hurricane, and many people found themselves trapped when the Sanibel Causeway shut down. 

The three-mile long Causeway includes little islands that make a beautiful spot for fishing or watching the sunset in the summer months but don't hold up too well during a storm surge. 

The Sanibel Causeway

Traffic jam at the island Speedway

Jerry's Grocery Store

Meanwhile, gas lines are growing longer while prices are going up, and the 24-packs of bottled water were sold out at Jerry's grocery store.

Lining up the boats at the marina

They're pulling the boats out of the Sanibel Marina, including our Bella. (Taking delivery of a new boat just before a hurricane isn't the best timing.) But, as a man at the marina shop noted, if the wall of the eye of a Category 5 hurricane passes over, it doesn't matter where you've got your boat parked.

We met some tourists on the beach this morning. This couple from Pittsburgh were supposed to be staying in the Keys for another week, but they're driving up the Panhandle instead. "Did you drive down?" I asked, surprised. "No, but all the flights home are booked," they said. They're renting a car that they'll probably take all the way back to Pennsylvania.

From the Weather Channel this morning 

 On the other hand, a woman from South Bend, Indiana is settled in and has no intention of cutting her vacation short. She's got another week to go and plans to spend it right here.

As for us, we're probably going to shutter up the house, pack up the dogs, and head up I-75 to Gainesville.                                                    
The latest projections from the "Euro Model Ensembles" (which make me think of a glamorous singing group) cover most of the state of Florida so it may be we're in the path either way. Makes me think of that Clash song. "Should we stay or should we go? If we go there will be trouble. An if we stay it will be double."

Wish Irma would let us know soon.